Saturday, June 23, 2018

Keys to make a right decision, according to a former poker player

Annie Duke is world famous for being a former poker champion, winner of tournaments such as the World Series of Poker (2004) and the Heads-Up Poker Championship of the United States (2002). Few know that before becoming famous for his skills in this game, he earned a Ph.D. in cognitive science at the University of Pennsylvania.



In a talk with the BBC, the expert in this popular game argued that "poker is a unique place to observe and understand the decision-making process".

For this, everything we have to solve happens in an environment like this game. And with the idea of ​​contributing to this topic he wrote the book Thinking about bets; how to make smart decisions when you do not have all the data.

As mentioned in the title, the former champion observed that at the time of making a decision "there are many hidden things in sight, much information that we do not have or do not know and when it comes to predicting the future, luck also intervenes" .

This happens both in poker and in life, therefore, the strategies used by players to solve their dilemma, can be very useful to address everyday challenges.

Under the premise of helping others from his experience, Duke also created an organization called How I Decide, to which young people come to develop critical thinking and the ability to make decisions. And it gives some premises that also contribute to those key moments of our life:

- Do not think in black and white or in right and wrong. What we have to decide belongs to the future, therefore we do not have all the knowledge about how things will be and, in these cases, luck can intervene. On the other hand, if we already have the preconception that something is right or wrong, we are conditioning ourselves and it is certain that we will reject any new information presented to us.



- Seek to be precise and not have the absolute truth. If we start with the idea that only what we hold is the right thing, we will never go in search of another truth and we will surround ourselves with those who think like us. If we look for precision, invariably we must open ourselves to other opinions, which will broaden our panorama and perfect our own thinking.

- Exchange with people who think differently. Help integrate groups that complement our thinking in front of unknown situations or when we realize that our opinion is partial.

- Do not be afraid to say "I'm not sure". If instead of frightening us, embarrassing us or reserving the state of insecurity, we open ourselves and express our doubts, surely there will be someone who will bring us their thoughts and this can help us to make a better decision.

Wednesday, June 13, 2018

The World Cup of bets is just hours away

The predictions for the 2014 World Cup Brazil that gave specialists and agencies of high reputation had a particularity: they all failed. There were several examples that put Spain in the final and Brazil winning the game against Germany, for example.


Paddy Power, the most important bookmaker in Ireland, had named England as the Cup winner, while Italy and Uruguay also appeared as great candidates.

But that's already history and the bookmakers are back on the agenda, in the lead-up to the biggest world soccer event. And just hours from the start of Russia 2018, they have something clear: Lionel Messi is the great candidate to be the scorer of the World Cup, although Argentina is not among the main favorites to lift the trophy on July 15.

Brazil and Germany come to the World Cup as the main contenders to be champions. In the second line, always according to specialists, appear France and Spain.

The forecasts of Bet365, William Hill, Sportium and Betfair note that the cast of Tite is the most likely to take the World Cup, with a fee between 5 and 5.50 euros.

For starters, Betfair are inclined to a new consecration of the five-time world champions, with a quota of 5.5 euros for every 1 wagered. Hand in hand with Neymar, those led by Tite showed great performance in all the friendlies they played and will be one of the great attractions of the tournament.

Behind them appear the Germans with a fee of 6 euros and the first European selection of the ranking, despite not having achieved good results in their recent friendlies. The same house argues that Messi will not be enough to save Argentina (11 euros).

The third favorite here is the Spanish team (6.5), which will try to erase the bad image that it gave in the last World Cup. France appears behind the Iberians (7). There are two cases of countries that come with real options, although somewhat smaller to win the World Cup.

Betfair, also, shows another particularity: it assures that Russia, the local one, will not surpass the first stage and thinks that they will be Uruguay and Egypt those that will finish progressing to the second phase in that group.

For the Bwin house, meanwhile, the scheme of the first four does not change much: Brazil, Germany, France and Spain. Although in this case the Gauls climb the third step. The Brazilian team pays 5 euros for each bet. Here, Argentina pays 10 euros and is located again in the fifth step of the ranking.

While, for virtual fans, Bet365 shows a similar scheme to Bwin: with the four countries mentioned above and the cast of Jorge Sampaoli in the fifth placement ($ 10). After the agonizing classification in Ecuador, the bets were modified month by month in the most popular sites. At least for the most expert houses in the world, it is not enough with the presence of the No. 10 albiceleste for Argentina to lift its third world cup.

But if the bettors are guided by what happened in Brazil 2014, the picture can be modified. Of course, if the World Cup was a favorite thing, it would not be funny. This is where the countries with attractive sums appear. In this lot we find those of Sampaoli, with quotas that in general go between 10 and 11 euros, and Belgium, between 11 and 12 euros.

The betting houses ensure that the trophy to the top scorer in the 2018 World Cup of Russia is disputed between Messi, Neymar and Antoine Griezmann, with quotas that range between 10 and 13 euros per euro invested for the one who hits.